Rand volatile as markets await US payrolls data

Johannesburg — The rand weakened in early trade yesterday as investors waited for the all-important, ever volatile payrolls data today which will give indications of the next Federal Reserve lift-off.

At 08:59 the rand extended losses, weakening 0.09 percent to R13.4505/ percent to a 11-day low.

Stocks look set to open at least 326 points higher as equity futures on the Top 40 index, which often act as a precursor of the actual index, rose 0.75 percent.

Yields on government bonds were mixed, with the benchmark 2026 issue up 5 basis points at 8.470 percent.

The rand made some gains to the R13.3930 resistance level before sliding back as it continues to follow the global equity market roller coaster.

“The immediate bias is mildly to the upside but risks remain high given the global equity market swings. Volatility is not dropping away as fast as hoped,” said John Cairns, a currency strategist at Rand Merchant Bank.

“Markets have been in this elevated state of volatility for two weeks. Despite early expectations that volumes would drop off, it now appears possible that they will remain elevated for some time.”

The market will be looking at a whole host of data on Thursday for clues when US initial jobless claims and trade balance figures come out, including local business confidence data.

But the all-important US jobs figure released today will set the stage.

If the numbers come out positive, it will bolster the case for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve at next week’s policy meeting.

Ratings agency Moody’s expressed a cautious outlook on South Africa’s economy on Wednesday but gave no indication that it is likely to downgrade the credit rating anytime soon, giving some support for the rand.

With the Chinese markets set to remain closed into the weekend, market investors are likely to turn their attention to the European Central Bank Policy meeting on Thursday and on what its officials make of recent turmoil in financial markets. — Fin24

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