Zim to register growth in 2015: IMF

IMF

THE International Monetary Fund says Zimbabwe’s economy would grow marginally to 3,2 percent in 2015 from 3,1 percent as the country is expected to register improvements in gross national savings as well as broad money supply.

The country’s growth is also likely to be anchored on the growth expected to be recorded in Sub-Saharan economy.

According to statistics released in The Regional Economic Outlook on Sub-Saharan Africa report, growth in the region is expected to remain strong, at about 5 percent in 2014 and 5,75 percent in 2015.

On the back of this growth and several adjustments made by the government, Zimbabwe is set to register marginal growth in different aspects of the economy.

Figures from the survey show that gross national savings as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product are expected to remain in negative territory but improve slightly from -14,4 percent to -13,4 percent in 2015 and the country’s overall fiscal balance will improve from -1,7 percent to 0,6 percent. However, the IMF says total investments to the country will decline in 2015 to 12,9 percent of GDP from 13,7 percent this year.

Zimbabwe has been receiving little in the form of foreign investment in the past decade although that has begun to change as witnessed by several infrastructure projects supported by China and Russia among others. The government expenditure is expected to drop 2,4 percent from 30,9 percent of the country’s GDP to 28,5 percent next year.

This will put Zimbabwe in a good position in terms of the IMF staff monitored programme, to which the country agreed. Broad money is expected to go up from 29,2 percent this year to 29,7 percent next year while broad money growth will move up from 3,3 percent to 6,4 percent. The country registered growth in broad money supply in April this year as the country’s deposits base responded to the positive effects of a successful tobacco season. Market watchers believe the same will hold true for deposits next year.

The survey also showed the government debt is likely to remain unchanged at 58,5 percent of GDP as well as the net FDI which will remain flat at 2 percent. The country has been struggling to reduce the amount of goods and services brought into the country and shore up exports.

The initiatives might be showing a bit of promise as, according to the IMF, exports are expected to marginally increase from 30,1 percent of the GDP to 30,9 percent in 2015 while imports go down from 61,8 percent to 61,3 percent. Resultantly, the trade balance on goods is expected to improve from -24,4 percent to -23,1 percent next year. The country’s reserves on imported goods and services are also expected to drop from 0,8 months to 0,7 months next year.

According to the survey; “Solid growth will continue in the lion’s share of the region’s countries, driven by sustained infra-structure investment, buoyant services sectors, and strong agricultural production, even as oil-related activities provide less support. “In future, it will be important to make the most of the new available financing from international investors and relatively new instruments such as PPPs, while maintaining debt sustainability and mitigating the risks involved,” the survey said. – BH24

THE International Monetary Fund says Zimbabwe’s economy would grow marginally to 3,2 percent in 2015 from 3,1 percent as the country is expected to register improvements in gross national savings as well as broad money supply.
The country’s growth is also likely to be anchored on the growth expected to be recorded in Sub-Saharan economy.
According to statistics released in The Regional Economic Outlook on Sub-Saharan Africa report, growth in the region is expected to remain strong, at about 5 percent in 2014 and 5,75 percent in 2015.
On the back of this growth and several adjustments made by the government, Zimbabwe is set to register marginal growth in different aspects of the economy.
Figures from the survey show that gross national savings as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product are expected to remain in negative territory but improve slightly from -14,4 percent to -13,4 percent in 2015 and the country’s overall fiscal balance will improve from -1,7 percent to 0,6 percent. However, the IMF says total investments to the country will decline in 2015 to 12,9 percent of GDP from 13,7 percent this year.
Zimbabwe has been receiving little in the form of foreign investment in the past decade although that has begun to change as witnessed by several infrastructure projects supported by China and Russia among others. The government expenditure is expected to drop 2,4 percent from 30,9 percent of the country’s GDP to 28,5 percent next year.
This will put Zimbabwe in a good position in terms of the IMF staff monitored programme, to which the country agreed. Broad money is expected to go up from 29,2 percent this year to 29,7 percent next year while broad money growth will move up from 3,3 percent to 6,4 percent. The country registered growth in broad money supply in April this year as the country’s deposits base responded to the positive effects of a successful tobacco season. Market watchers believe the same will hold true for deposits next year.
The survey also showed the government debt is likely to remain unchanged at 58,5 percent of GDP as well as the net FDI which will remain flat at 2 percent. The country has been struggling to reduce the amount of goods and services brought into the country and shore up exports.
The initiatives might be showing a bit of promise as, according to the IMF, exports are expected to marginally increase from 30,1 percent of the GDP to 30,9 percent in 2015 while imports go down from 61,8 percent to 61,3 percent. Resultantly, the trade balance on goods is expected to improve from -24,4 percent to -23,1 percent next year. The country’s reserves on imported goods and services are also expected to drop from 0,8 months to 0,7 months next year.
According to the survey; “Solid growth will continue in the lion’s share of the region’s countries, driven by sustained infra-structure investment, buoyant services sectors, and strong agricultural production, even as oil-related activities provide less support. “In future, it will be important to make the most of the new available financing from international investors and relatively new instruments such as PPPs, while maintaining debt sustainability and mitigating the risks involved,” the survey said. – BH24

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