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This is the view of Xan Smiley, the Africa editor of The Economist, speaking at a summit in Johannesburg yesterday on the future of Zimbabwe, hosted by the magazine.

Smiley said there had been considerable progress over the past 18 months especially in light of where the country had been in March 2008.

Smiley said the “mood has changed” in the country.

“In Harare there is a palpable sense of vibrancy (but) the mood is very mixed,” he said.

He said levels of violence were “considerably down”, compared with two years ago.

Among the improvements he identified, following the dollarisation and “randisation” of the economy, were that inflation had fallen to single digits.

He said: “People are being paid, there is a sense of certainty, goods are available, and there is decent food for those who can afford it.”

And he said the agricultural sector was starting to recover.

Smiley said there had been a “widening of the political space” and spoke of the possibility that President Mugabe, who has promised elections next year, despite Tsvangirai’s good showing in opinion polls, would seek an “exit strategy”.

He said there would be a “fair election” in Zimbabwe and called for “creative diplomacy” on the part of South Africa and the UK to bring it about. He also suggested a lifting of sanctions against Zimbabwe.