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The ANC will receive more than 60% of the national vote, regardless of the voter turnout, according to Ipsos’ final poll which was released yesterday – a day before the general elections.

These and other findings are found in the “Pulse of the People” study which was conducted in March and April 2019.

Depending on whether there is low, medium, or high turnout, the ANC is predicted to bag between 61% and 65% of the national vote.

Meanwhile, the DA is polling in between 17% and 19% within the different turnout scenarios – a decline from the 22% it received in 2014.

The EFF looks set to increase, garnering either 10% or 11% over the four scenarios.

In the highly unlikely event that all registered voters participate, the ANC’s final support will decrease to 56.92% of the vote, the DA to 15.23% of the vote and the EFF to 9.45% of the vote.

The Ipsos study suggests that in a low voter turnout scenario, ANC voters seem more committed to vote and that the party support will increase notably.

“In a high voter turnout scenario, the ANC succeeds in convincing voters, who would otherwise not have voted, to come out and participate. Thus, both a low turnout and high turnout will be to the singular advantage of the ANC.

“The support for other parties is far more consistent across the four scenarios,” according to Ipsos.

Other insights from the study suggest that, on a provincial level: “It is unlikely that the DA will win the three provinces they set out to do (namely the Western Cape, Northern Cape and Gauteng), but the Western Cape is within reach (although they might need a coalition partner to form a government).”  

The study continues to suggest that the EFF “should be the official opposition in Limpopo and the North West, and possibly in the Free State and/or Mpumalanga”.

The governing party, according to the study, is likely to achieve “comfortable majorities (of 66%+ of the vote) in Mpumalanga, the North West and Limpopo” as well as majorities in KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and the battleground of Gauteng.

Supporters of the three biggest political parties were also asked about their opinion on the direction of the country.

According to Ipsos, ANC supporters are split in their opinion, while six in every 10 supporters of both the DA and the EFF feel that the country is going in the wrong direction.

Only one third of registered South African voters believe the country is going the right way and more than half (52%) of registered voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction, according to the study.

Meanwhile, another protest has erupted in Durban – this time in Reservoir Hills yesterday morning – just a day before South Africans head to the polls to vote in the general elections.

Footage has emerged of people burning tyres and running from public order police (POP) on the M19 and in Umgudulu.

SA Police Service (SAPS) spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Thulani Zwane said a group of around 100 people protested along Varsity Drive and the M19. “No damage or injuries were reported. SAPS, POP and Metro police are monitoring the area and the situation is currently calm. No arrests have been made.”

Durban experienced violent protests throughout the City after municipal workers went on strike last week to demand salary increases. This comes after a group of MK veterans had their salaries notched up.

The municipality revealed that the damage to infrastructure as a result of the strike amounted to almost R4m, and the figure was growing.

– Sapa