Mining sector bullish of 2025 prospects
Nqobile Bhebhe, [email protected]
THE mining sector is confidently anticipating a strong recovery in 2025 driven by the projected 7 percent output growth and anticipated positive commodity market conditions, which are expected to boost mineral revenue, increase employment levels and enhance capacity utilisation.
Globally, the mining sector has been hamstrung by several factors with a drop in commodity prices negatively affecting operations and productivity. Local mining houses were not spared and some resorted to scaling down production.
However, according to Mining Industry Prospects for 2025 report findings released yesterday on the sidelines of the 27th Mining, Engineering, and Transport Expo (Mine-Entra) in Bulawayo, mining executives are confident about 2025 mining prospects.
For instance, the report commissioned by the Chamber of Mines and presented by, Dr Carren Pindiriri, shows that average capacity utilisation is expected at 90 percent in 2025 up from 84 percent this year.
Dr Pindiriri said payments to the Government are expected to increase from US$960 million to US$1 billion in 2025.
“The measured index for mineral output growth prospects for 2025 is 79,2. This means that respondent mining executives are generally optimistic about the prospects of ramping up production in 2025.
“Approximately 80 percent indicated that they will ramp up production by up to 20 percent in 2025,” said Dr Pindiriri. He said further analysis of planned production targets shows that the mining sector output is expected to grow by a weighted average of around seven percent next year.
“Respondent mining executives indicated that the production targets will be largely anchored by ongoing expansion activities across mineral subsectors,” said Dr Pindiriri.
The report shows that mineral revenue is expected to increase by approximately two percent in 2024 and by around 10 percent to approximately US$6 billion in 2025 from about US$5,5 billion in 2024 on the back of improved output and some anticipated commodity price recovery in 2025.
“Survey findings show that average capacity utilisation for the mining industry is expected at 90 percent in 2025 up from 84 percent in 2024. “Key sectors anticipated to drive the improvement in capacity utilisation are gold, ferrochrome, and PGMs,” reads the report.
With the projected positive outlook, Dr Pindiriri said employment levels are expected to increase.
“The measured industry for employment prospects for 2025 is +5.1. This means that in general, mining executives are positive about increasing employment numbers in 2025 and mining industry formal employment is expected to increase by around three percent in 2025 to 58 700 from 57 000 in 2024,” he said.
Analysis of survey data shows that the respondents in key minerals are anticipating commodity prices to gradually pick up in 2025.
The report further notes that gold producers are expecting gold prices to remain bullish, increasing by an average of 13 percent in 2025. The findings show that Platinum Group of Metals producers expect the prices to gradually improve but remain significantly below recent levels.
Nickel producers on one hand expect prices to pick up by an average of 14 percent in 2025 while lithium producers expect an average price decline of 15 percent in 2025.
According to the survey, mining executives are generally optimistic about spending on capital projects in 2025 with about 56 percent of respondents indicating that they would spend more capital next year compared to 2024, while 13 percent are planning to inject the same levels of capital as in 2024.
However, most mining executives indicated that power outages posed challenges to operations. For instance, ferrochrome producers indicated that they were directed to reduce their power demand from the national grid by 10 megawatts.
“Almost all respondents indicated that power outages were resulting in production stoppages and output losses.
“Analysis of survey data show that the mining industry is estimated to have lost around US$500 million of potential revenue due to output losses arising from power outages,” reads part of the report.
The report said the mining sector is consuming approximately 600 megawatts. In 2025, survey data shows that the mining industry’s electricity demand is expected to increase by about 18 percent to 700 megawatts while diesel consumption is expected to increase by 12 percent.
Chamber of Mines president, Mr Thomas Gono, said most stakeholders have confirmed that the report is rich in information and they are using the survey findings in their decision-making.
The “State of the Mining Industry Survey” was conceived in 2015 to provide a detailed account of the state of affairs in the mining industry vis-à-vis key performance opportunities, prospects, and challenges in the mining sector.
Since its inception, the report has become the main reliable source of the state of affairs on the performance and prospects of the mining industry.
The survey reports have assisted in bridging the information gap and providing leverage for Government policy as well as strategic planning for other key stakeholders that include mining houses, investors, financiers, suppliers, labour, and communities.
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