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President Mugabe

THE latest Afrobarometer survey indicates that President Mugabe would trounce his main rival MDC leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai by a wide margin were elections to be held tomorrow. According to the respected and authoritative pollster, the popularity of the MDC-T leader has fallen significantly over the past 15 years from a high of 57 percent to a lowly 16 percent this year. As Mr Tsvangirai’s fortunes plummet, President Mugabe’s star is rising.

In its latest report, Afrobarometer noted that President Mugabe remained popular especially in the rural areas. The middle aged and Zimbabweans with humble educational background also support the veteran leader with at least 39 percent of the respondents saying they would vote for Mr Tsvangirai in 2005.

The number rose to 57 percent in 2009 before it nosedived to a low of 16 percent in 2017. Afrobarometer said 29 percent of the people it interviewed in 2005 pledged their support for President Mugabe but the figure has risen to 38 percent this year.

In its survey, Afrobarometer asked people who they would vote for if presidential elections were held tomorrow and they rooted for President Mugabe.

“Survey shows that Zanu-PF has an edge if presidential elections were to be held tomorrow. Asked which party’s candidate one would vote for in a hypothetical presidential elections, a day after the survey, 38 percent said Zanu-PF, 24 percent refused to answer, 16 percent said MDC-T, 11 percent said they would not vote and four percent said they would vote for a ZIMPF candidate (before the split) and two percent said they would vote for other parties,” read the report for the month of May 2017. “Survey shows that Zanu-PF still commands support in the rural areas while a plurality (31 percent) of those who refused to answer are urban based.” The research also showed that President Mugabe still remained popular.

“President Mugabe continues to get positive ratings from Zimbabweans with more than half saying that they approve of the way he has performed his job over the past 12 months,” read the report’s findings. President Mugabe got an average approval rating of at least 56 percent from all the 10 provinces against a disapproval of 34 percent. Masvingo was the highest with 74 percent approval against a 14 percent disapproval.

At least 54 percent of respondents aged above 51 years said they would vote for Zanu-PF, a paltry 11 percent indicated they would vote for the MDC-T while 38 percent of those between 36 and 50 years said they would vote for Zanu-PF. At least 20 percent of that age preferred the MDC-T. Of those aged between 18 and 35 years old 32 percent said they would vote for Zanu-PF while 16 percent responded that they would vote for MDC-T.

The latest survey vindicates the pro-poor policies of President Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF party and further cement his status as an iconic leader whose connection with his people is strong. The results also strengthen Zanu-PF’s hand ahead of eagerly awaited elections next year where the party faces another litmus test against an opposition which is mulling a coalition to enhance its chances of dislodging the revolutionary party.

President Mugabe has always been the glue that has held the ruling party together and his endorsement as its presidential candidate next year will encourage the rank and file to close ranks and work towards another landslide victory. Unity will be key to achieving another milestone win and the sooner cadres put aside their differences and forge a united front the better.

The Afrobarometer survey is instructive in as far as it shows the extent of President Mugabe’s popularity but Zanu-PF should not take it for granted that it will easily cruise to victory because voters can change their minds between now and the polls next year if they become disenchanted.

Thus it is crucial for Zanu-PF as the party which informs Government, to continue delivering on the promises it made to the electorate in the last harmonised elections in 2013. It is also important that bickering and petty fights along factional lines immediately stop so that the party is focused. The current scenario where Government ministers and Zanu-PF officials are engaged in mortal combat could be detrimental to the party’s chances of retaining its two thirds majority in Parliament.

President Mugabe has always preached unity and is reiterating the same message in his Interface rallies with youths in the country’s provinces and we call on disciplined cadres to heed his message. Zanu-PF should also not be lulled into a false sense of security by the Afrobarometer survey results as these only indicate the extent of President Mugabe’s popularity which needs to be translated into votes.

A lot of work still needs to be done to once again convince Zimbabweans that their future lies with Zanu-PF and its leader President Mugabe.