Zimpapers Logo

Lesotho Prime Minister Thomas Thabane

Joram Nyathi Group Political Editor
LET’S take a visit to the mountain Kingdom of Lesotho. It doesn’t matter whether what happened there last Saturday was a military coup or not. Happily, by Monday Sadc had calmed the storm at a meeting with the feuding parties in Pretoria. The two bitter coalition partners, Prime Minister Thomas Thabane and his deputy, Mothetjoa Metsing, were headed back to Maseru, and the mastermind of the alleged “coup”, army commander Lieutenant General Kamoli, fired by Thabane for his alignment to Metsing, had agreed to step down.

For President Mugabe, it was like coming out of a coalition government at home and heading straight into a regional coalition headache. The development was described in some sections of the media as Mugabe’s “litmus test” as Sadc’s new chair. He appears to have passed the test without the need for a summit. It is ironic that President Mugabe’s first headache as Sadc chairman should come from one of the smallest countries in the region.

Even more disturbing is the fact that the coup, or non-coup, came as an unsettling aberration from the key developmental agenda which Sadc set for itself at its 34th Summit in Victoria Falls on August 17-18.

But in a case of prescience saving the day better than neighbourly solidarity, Sadc unanimously decided at the summit that Lesotho was, at this stage, too volatile to assume the Troika’s security, politics and defence portfolio given the simmering tensions over the suspension of parliament by Thabane. The organ was accordingly reposed in South Africa, a country in which Lesotho constitutes a tiny enclave.

However, for the region, Lesotho perhaps represents a political nemesis, a bad nightmare that won’t end. It points to the need for Sadc to have a conflict resolution mechanism ready for deployment by the chair in the event of such hiccups. It is a chance for Africa to resolve its own challenges without calling in Obama and his Africom “special forces”.

Theory, practice
Zimbabwe was in an uneasy coalition government between Zanu-PF and the two MDC formations for more than four years, courtesy of the efforts of Sadc in general, but South Africa in particular. This followed an inconclusive election result in 2008 which yielded a hung parliament, with subsequent negotiations facilitated by Thabo Mbeki culminating in an inclusive government in February 2009.

That often acrimonious and dysfunctional relationship met its natural death with the outcome of the July 31, 2013 harmonised elections in which Zanu-PF and President Mugabe scored an unquestionable majority although MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai continues to clutch at the straw of a rigged victory. Lesotho is different. In theory and on the surface, everything is resolved and settled. There is calm in Maseru. The soldiers are back in the barracks. The prime minister and his deputy issued a joint statement in Pretoria that they would work for peace and order and implement a Sadc roadmap to ensure stability in the country. Metsing assured Troika chair President Jacob Zuma and the Zimbabwean delegation that he won’t be revisiting his call for a no-confidence vote against PM Thabane once the prorogation of parliament was lifted, an issue which precipitated Saturday’s ugly events and the PM’s escape to South Africa. Sadc is searching for someone to facilitate further dialogue while at the same time constituting a monitoring group to train an eagle’s eye on developments in the kingdom.

In practice, however, things are not as clear-cut as they seem. Thabane has neither the electoral votes, the support of parliament nor the certainty that the army will guarantee his security and safety. The huge garments of legitimacy sit gingerly on his spare frame. Metsing’s pledge not to push for a vote of no confidence is no guarantee either that parliament cannot do so in the near future. Will the military finally stay permanently in their barracks? In short, there is a lame duck Prime Minister in Lesotho. Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown.

The genesis
Thabane is a Prime Minister created for convenience. He was only the best of three losing candidates in the May 2012 general elections. Media reports show that in that election, Lesotho’s former Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili’s newly-formed Democratic Congress (DC) scored the most votes of the four major contesting parties, winning 48 seats out of 120. This was however less than the constitutional requirement.

After serving for 14 years as leader of Lesotho Congress for Democracy (LCD), Mosisili was already facing charges of overstaying in power. He left the LCD just before elections to form the DC, creating room for Metsing to take over as leader of LCD.Thabane’s All Basotho Congress (ABC) and the Basotho National Party (BNP), led by current sports minister Thesele Maseribane, then formed a coalition government with the LCD, now led by Metsing. Thabane’s party had the highest number of seats among the losers, thus landing the post of prime minister, with Metsing coming next as his deputy. All this was done to spite and exclude Mosisili. They all nearly had nothing in common.

Soon the inevitable followed. The coalition partners began accusing Thabane the prime minister of unilateral action by not consulting them. By March this year MPs were mooting a motion of no confidence in Thabane, which would have led to his removal from power. He made a pre-emptive strike, dissolving parliament in June for nine months. This forced Sadc to send Troika members Presidents Hifikepunye Pohamba of Namibia and Jacob Zuma of South Africa to try and end the standoff. Metsing reacted to this further humiliating act of unilateralism by calling for mass demonstrations, which should have begun on Monday this week. He apparently had the backing of the military while Thabane was supported by the police in seeking to thwart the protests, hence the skirmishes on Saturday which left one policeman dead and two injured, forcing Thabane to escape to South Africa.
Way forward

First, that little crisis in Lesotho is a case in point of a marriage of convenience going horribly wrong; it exposes the risks of ill-conceived political alliances inspired by a desire for change for its own sake. The alliance government in Lesotho was forged ostensibly in pursuit of democracy. Soon the person entrusted with that nebulous project was being accused of failure to consult, in short, of dictatorial tendencies, the lesson being that it is strong institutions which institutionalise democratic governance, not individuals proclaiming their righteousness.

Second, enduring political alliances can only be forged by parties which have some shared values if not background. Alliances of convenience expose the country to anarchy and great risk. We saw that in Kenya and Zimbabwe in the past few years, the lesson being that political parties must have clear cut policies to win elections outright.

Third, Sadc needs a comprehensive conflict resolution mechanism to urgently deal with crises when they arise. It is risky for the chairperson to rely on ad hoc arrangements. It is fortunate that the Lesotho issue was easily resolved before it could spiral into violence as happened in September 1998 when President Mandela was forced to send the South African military, resulting in the death of at least 70 people, looting and destruction of property.
Fourth, Sadc needs a well-resourced standby army of its own to deploy at short notice to trouble spots. Allowing instability to escalate while leaders call for summits can only open the region to intrusion from other forces whose motives are more destabilising than curative.

Fifth, the recent Sadc summit set value addition and beneficiation of primary products as the basis for rapid industrialisation. It also stressed the need for self-reliance in food production. Those imperative goals cannot be achieved without assured regional political stability.It would be foolhardy to imagine that Lesotho is the last or that every one of these disturbances would be similarly easy to resolve. Lesotho could just be a straw in the wind. Better be ready for the worst and savour the peace dividend.