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London — Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal with Brussels at the expense of unionist politicians in Northern Ireland represents a political victory for the United Kingdom’s prime minister, but doubts remain about whether he will be able to sell it to parliament.

For many in Johnson’s ruling Conservative Party, his plan leaves a bitter taste: breaking promises made to the small Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) whose support the Conservatives have relied upon to stay in power while potentially boosting their own party’s chances in a likely election.

However, analysts doubt whether Johnson can defy the arithmetic to win MPs’ support for his deal in the historic parliamentary vote on Saturday, pointing to pressure for him to concede a second Brexit referendum that could even halt the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union completely.

European leaders gave Johnson’s deal cautious approval last night yet sent mixed signals about whether it would be the end of the road; leaving open the option of extending Brexit beyond the deadline of October 31 if MPs reject it.

David Jeffery, a lecturer in British politics at the University of Liverpool, who has studied the Conservative Party, said that whatever the outcome, Johnson can make political capital out of the recent developments.

“Number 10 is doing well at the moment,” Jeffrey said.

“Boris Johnson said he could get the EU to reopen the withdrawal agreement, he could bring them back to the negotiating table and get something different, and he was mocked by critics and he has done it, so it’s a personal win.”

Johnson’s deal overcomes the main obstacle to Brexit in parliament that has edged the country towards a “no-deal” exit from the EU. Economists have warned a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for Britain.

The DUP had led opposition to the so-called “backstop”, an arrangement devised by Johnson’s predecessor former Prime Minister Theresa May to protect the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland and under which there must be no physical border on the island of Ireland.

The unionists say Johnson’s new deal means Northern Ireland will be treated differently to the rest of the UK, in effect moving the customs border to the middle of the Irish Sea between the two islands of Great Britain and Ireland.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University London, said the mechanism means Northern Ireland is “essentially both in and out” of the UK and EU customs unions at the same time.

“The irony is, it’s very like what the EU first came up with a couple of years ago, which Theresa May rejected in favour of her own solution — the Irish backstop,” he said.

Johnson will now have to answer key questions about how he treated the DUP, which has flatly rejected his plans.

David Phinnemore, Professor of European Politics at Queen’s University Belfast, agreed with those who say he has in effect “sold out” the unionist party. “They have got major concerns about customs controls in the Irish Sea and he said there weren’t going to be any and he has now effectively signed up to that,” Phinnemore said.

Queen Mary University’s Bale said that while a majority in Northern Ireland will be relieved about a deal that saves the Good Friday Agreement, the DUP will claim betrayal.

“People who talk about Johnson throwing the DUP under the bus or selling them out have got a point,” he said. 

“He made promises about not agreeing to anything that would mean a border running down the Irish Sea that he has clearly broken.”

The prime minister’s treatment of the DUP will be a key factor for determining the support he can muster for his deal in Saturday’s parliamentary vote, which analysts say will be hard to win.

He has lost DUP’s support, the opposition Labour Party has rejected his plan as “worse than May’s”, and rebel Conservative MPs opposed to his plans might be unwilling to back him. — Al Jazeera