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Herald Reporters
Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara’s declaration that he does not recognise Professor Welshman Ncube as MDC president is a harbinger of an imminent split in the party — a development that can precipitate early elections — political analysts have said.
DPM Mutambara on Monday said Prof Ncube’s rise to the party presidency and subsequent push to take over as a deputy premier is before the High Court and thus the status quo remained until the authorities decided otherwise.
MDC’s standing committee is scheduled to meet tomorrow to discuss this impasse and other issues.
Political analyst Professor Jonathan Moyo yesterday said the MDC’s problems would impact negatively on the inclusive Government or national politics.
Others, however, said a split could trigger a dissolution of the Global Political Agreement that gave rise to the inclusive Government and set the stage for elections being held earlier than anticipated.
Prof Moyo said, “It is difficult for a nothing to have an impact on something.
“There is no basis for even presuming that this was a political party of national consequence.”
He said the 2008 election results were clear testimony that MDC was not a serious national political party.
MDC won 10 out of 210 House of Assembly seats and six in the Senate.
“If there is nothing national about you, nothing regional about you, then what are you?
“It is impossible for a tribal party to have a national impact in 2011,” Prof Moyo said.
He said the disintegration of the MDC was not surprising because Prof Ncube was “synonymous with splits” and yet national leaders should be committed to unity.
A stand-off between Prof Ncube and Mr Morgan Tsvangirai culminated in the split of the original MDC in 2005.
Prof Ncube invited DPM Mutambara to lead his MDC faction while Mr Tsvangirai leads MDC-T.
Prof Moyo added: “Zanu-PF and MDC-T can pass legislation without MDC.
“A Government simply ought to have enough numbers to pass legislation in Parliament.”
Prof Moyo advised DPM Mutambara and Prof Ncube not to bring student politics into national governance.
The rivalry between the pair, he said, could be traced back to the days when DPM Mutambara was a student leader at the University of Zimbabwe while Prof Ncube was a senior legal preceptor.
However, political analyst Mr Gabriel Chaibva said the GPA was ambiguous when it came to situations such as the present one.
“Now Mutambara is no longer a leader of his party. He is no longer representing anyone at the negotiating table. The question is what then becomes of the GPA?
“One of the principals is there and is not representing anyone.
“Technically speaking, the GPA is no more and there is no better time for elections than now,” he said.
Mr Chaibva said Prof Mutambara could not de-link his ascension to the deputy premiership from his party post.
“The DPM post is derived from his political party. He is a product of the MDC and therefore he cannot de-link.”
Legal experts said President Mugabe could only swear Prof Ncube into office if DPM Mutambara resigns.
President Mugabe had in January also pointed out that it was up to DPM Mutambara to resign.
Harare lawyer Mr Aston Musunga said: “Legally, Professor Mutambara is still the DPM and remains the DPM until he resigns voluntarily.
“If he does not resign, then that post is not vacant. There is no vacancy for Welshman Ncube or anyone else to be sworn in as DPM.”
Constitutional expert Dr Lovemore Madhuku added: “It is very interesting that his (DPM Mutambara’s) reading of the law is more correct than the professor of law.
“He (DPM Mutambara) is not different from the Attorney-General, who is a non-constituency MP. No political party can purport to recall him from Parliament . . . Ncube’s reading of the law has been very flawed in this matter.”
Senator David Coltart, a lawyer and an MDC-nominated member of Cabinet, declined to comment.
“We were in Cabinet today and I did not get time to meet him (DPM Mutambara). But as you might know there is a standing committee meeting of our party on Thursday so it would be inappropriate for me to comment now.”
Some MDC MPs have, however, thrown their weight behind Prof Ncube.
Tsholotsho Senator Mr Believe Gaule claimed Prof Mutambara had openly declared his support for Prof Ncube at the party’s recent congress.
“When he said ‘I will remain a cadre of the party’, I said to myself, here is a democrat, but I now feel embarrassed by what he is saying.”
Gwanda North House of Assembly Member, Mr Thandeko Mnkandla, said he would only take a position when a court challenge to Prof Ncube’s ascension to the helm of the MDC was finalised.
“I can’t say this one is right or wrong because these issues are sub-judice.”
On Monday, DPM Mutambara acknowledged that the MDC was disintegrating.